Hansa Rostock U19 5–4 Holstein Kiel U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

5 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Holstein Kiel U19

F. Bock 90+5', 42'

H. Schwarz 81'

L. Stoldt 70', 20'

A. Assameur 90'

K. Kortum 64'

I. Matene 49'

M. Meyer 40'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1947%

×Draw20%

Holstein Kiel U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.98

Hansa Rostock U19

2.38

Holstein Kiel U19

1.98

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 61 away

2.05

creates per match

1.61

2.36

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Holstein Kiel U19

1.61

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Holstein Kiel U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

67%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

80%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

53%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

28%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

91%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

68%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

42%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

86%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

59%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.38

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

47%

level

20%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

33%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

40'

42'

46'

49'

58'

B. Asik← K. Hahn

64'

K. Kortum

70'

L. Stoldt

74'

A. Abdulla← M. Schmitz

74'

K. Tack← K. Kortum

81'

H. Schwarz

84'

B. Peters← H. Schwarz

86'

A. Assameur← H. Westphal

86'

R. Uguna← M. Meyer

90+6'

J. Cierach← L. Stoldt

90'

A. Assameur

90+5'

F. Bock

Hansa

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Meyer

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Stoldt

Falk

⚽2

Bock

Manager: C. Rahn

46'▲C. Weber←▼L. Barkow

84'▲B. Peters←▼H. Schwarz

90+6'▲J. Cierach←▼L. Stoldt

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

WeberPetersCierachEhlertLinow

Manager: J. Kaps

58'▲B. Asik←▼K. Hahn

74'▲A. Abdulla←▼M. Schmitz

74'▲K. Tack←▼K. Kortum

86'▲A. Assameur←▼H. Westphal

86'▲R. Uguna←▼M. Meyer

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

AsikAbdullaTackAssameurUgunaWieseSuhr

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19

Hansa Rostock U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 5-4 in U19 Bundesliga on November 23, 2024.

Goals: L. Stoldt (20', 70'), M. Meyer (40'), F. Bock (42', 90+5'), I. Matene (49'), K. Kortum (64'), H. Schwarz (81'), A. Assameur (90').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19