Hansa Rostock U19 0–3 Hoffenheim U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hoffenheim U19

M. Faß 82' (pen), 43'

H. Behrens 48'

5/13/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 2Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1929%

×Draw19%

Hoffenheim U1952%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.58

Hansa Rostock U19

1.90

Hoffenheim U19

2.58

Hoffenheim U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

2.05

creates per match

2.79

2.36

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Hoffenheim U19

2.79

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Hoffenheim U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

48%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Hoffenheim U19

81%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

71%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

14%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

85%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

56%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

29%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

92%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

72%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

29%

level

19%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

52%

Hoffenheim U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

M. Faß

48'

H. Behrens

58'

D. Arnst← B. Makanda

60'

L. Schmitt← M. Szybora

60'

M. Hauer← M. Venohr

60'

T. Rotfuß← T. Fürstenau

67'

B. Huber← P. Hennrich

67'

M. Rehuš← T. Ottilinger

67'

N. Sørensen← Y. Hör

70'

S. Doucouré-Tandiang← F. Micheler

72'

C. Maltz← L. Bera

72'

L. Sperner← Mahdi Mohammadi

82'

M. FaßPenalty

Hansa

Hoffenheim

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Rahn

60'▲L. Schmitt←▼M. Szybora

60'▲M. Hauer←▼M. Venohr

60'▲T. Rotfuß←▼T. Fürstenau

72'▲C. Maltz←▼L. Bera

72'▲L. Sperner←▼Mahdi Mohammadi

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

SchmittHauerRotfußMaltzSpernerHöftmann

Manager: S. Schmitt

58'▲D. Arnst←▼B. Makanda

67'▲B. Huber←▼P. Hennrich

67'▲M. Rehuš←▼T. Ottilinger

67'▲N. Sørensen←▼Y. Hör

70'▲S. Doucouré-Tandiang←▼F. Micheler

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

ArnstHuberRehušSørensenDoucouré-TandiangPetersson

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock U19 vs Hoffenheim U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Hansa Rostock U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 13, 2023.

Goals: M. Faß (43', 82' pen), H. Behrens (48').

The match was played at Volksstadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock U19 vs Hoffenheim U19