Hansa Rostock U19 0–2 Energie Cottbus U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Energie Cottbus U19

I. Glushchenko 78' (pen)

T. Woitina 66'

2/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 12Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1944%

×Draw21%

Energie Cottbus U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchEnergie Cottbus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.90

Hansa Rostock U19

2.12

Energie Cottbus U19

1.90

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 56 away

2.05

creates per match

1.45

2.36

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Energie Cottbus U19

1.45

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Energie Cottbus U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Energie Cottbus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

64%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Energie Cottbus U19

79%

Draw or Energie Cottbus U19

56%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

25%

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

88%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

62%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

35%

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

85%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

56%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Energie Cottbus U19 away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.12

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.45 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

36%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

R. Harder← T. Michalski

64'

O. Zajac← T. Rotfuß

66'

T. Woitina

78'

K. Antosiak← M. Brzozowski

78'

I. GlushchenkoPenalty

82'

R. Celotto← H. Korkmazyürek

89'

J. Spangenberg← T. Woitina

Hansa

Energie

Bethke

Böhmert

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: U. Ehlers

64'▲O. Zajac←▼T. Rotfuß

78'▲K. Antosiak←▼M. Brzozowski

82'▲R. Celotto←▼H. Korkmazyürek

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

ZajacAntosiakCelottoKohlischSpernerHoffmannSchulz

Manager: S. König

46'▲R. Harder←▼T. Michalski

89'▲J. Spangenberg←▼T. Woitina

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

HarderSpangenbergWagnerMoyeMeißnerPischon