Hansa Rostock U19 5–3 Eintr. Norderstedt U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 4 – 1

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

K. Janke 87'

B. Peters 41', 31'

F. Bock 38'

C. Weber 11'

J. Wardius 57', 30'

M. Mbodje 47'

5/17/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 14Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1952%

×Draw18%

Eintr. Norderstedt U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchEintr. Norderstedt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

2.09

Hansa Rostock U19

2.77

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.09

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 6 away

2.05

creates per match

1.83

2.36

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.83

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

70%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

82%

Draw or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

48%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

33%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

94%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

76%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

51%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

88%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

62%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.77

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 1.83 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

52%

level

18%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

30%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

30'

31'

38'

41'

46'

46'

N. Gennerich← S. Termini

46'

S. Jung← D. Duah

47'

M. Mbodje

57'

J. Wardius

60'

E. Pasalic← K. Perehudov

60'

T. Chen← A. Seidi

61'

H. Schwarz← F. Bock

61'

M. Krebs← J. Cierach

75'

L. Barkow← C. Weber

75'

M. Rode← P. Ralfs

75'

R. Romaniuk← B. Hartrampf

87'

K. Janke

Hansa

Eintr.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Weber

⚽

▼

Bock

⚽2

Peters

Manager: C. Rahn

46'▲M. Kelm←▼J. Thomas

46'▲N. Gennerich←▼S. Termini

61'▲H. Schwarz←▼F. Bock

61'▲M. Krebs←▼J. Cierach

75'▲L. Barkow←▼C. Weber

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

KelmGennerichSchwarzKrebsBarkowMaurer

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

46'▲S. Jung←▼D. Duah

60'▲E. Pasalic←▼K. Perehudov

60'▲T. Chen←▼A. Seidi

75'▲M. Rode←▼P. Ralfs

75'▲R. Romaniuk←▼B. Hartrampf

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

JungPasalicChenRodeRomaniukLauterbachRikanovic