Hansa Rostock U19 0–1 Eimsbütteler TV U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Eimsbütteler TV U19

N. Leptien 28' (pen)

8/14/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1948%

×Draw21%

Eimsbütteler TV U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchEimsbütteler TV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.68

Hansa Rostock U19

2.12

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.68

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 11 away

2.05

creates per match

1.00

2.36

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.00

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Eimsbütteler TV U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Eimsbütteler TV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

69%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Eimsbütteler TV U19

79%

Draw or Eimsbütteler TV U19

52%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

28%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

88%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

62%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

35%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals

81%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals

50%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Eimsbütteler TV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.12

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more

31%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

N. LeptienPenalty

46'

J. Kliti← F. Bulut

58'

R. Celotto← H. Korkmazyürek

62'

B. Fedkenhauer← D. Naumann

62'

I. Mansaray← J. Buskies

69'

T. Rotfuß← R. Dei

72'

L. Schumacher← T. Duah

75'

M. Lemke← O. Zajac

Hansa

Eimsbütteler

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: U. Ehlers

58'▲R. Celotto←▼H. Korkmazyürek

69'▲T. Rotfuß←▼R. Dei

75'▲M. Lemke←▼O. Zajac

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

CelottoRotfußLemkeAntosiakJuhrmannHoffmannSchulz

Manager: P. Nabaoui

46'▲J. Kliti←▼F. Bulut

62'▲B. Fedkenhauer←▼D. Naumann

62'▲I. Mansaray←▼J. Buskies

72'▲L. Schumacher←▼T. Duah

Eimsbütteler TV U19 substitutes

KlitiFedkenhauerMansaraySchumacherAjruliÖzmenSiegfried