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Hansa Rostock U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hansa Rostock U19
Hansa Rostock U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Dynamo Dresden U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
12/3/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 11Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1939%
×Draw21%
Dynamo Dresden U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock U19
1.96
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 74 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19
2.05
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.58

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19
2.36
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.86

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par
Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw
60%
Hansa Rostock U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19
79%
Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19
61%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+
21%
Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals
86%
Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals
58%
Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals
31%
Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals
58%
Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.86 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.58 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more
39%
level
21%
Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more
40%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Hansa Rostock U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Volksstadion in Rostock.