Hansa Rostock U19 0–3 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

9/9/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1941%

×Draw21%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.99

Hansa Rostock U19

2.07

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 47 away

2.05

creates per match

1.62

2.36

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.62

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

62%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

79%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

59%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

23%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

87%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

61%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

34%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

86%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

59%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.07

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.62 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

41%

level

21%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

38%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff