Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hansa Rostock U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hansa Rostock U19
Hansa Rostock U19
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
4/25/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1942%
×Draw21%
Arminia Bielefeld U1937%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock U19
2.05
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19
2.05
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19
2.36
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.06

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw
63%
Hansa Rostock U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
79%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
58%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+
24%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals
87%
Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals
61%
Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals
33%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
85%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
56%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.05

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more
42%
level
21%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
37%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hansa
Arminia
C. Rahn
Manager: C. Rahn
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Hansa Rostock U19 6-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 25, 2026.