Hansa Rostock II 6–1 Viktoria Berlin

Hansa Rostock II

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Viktoria Berlin

5/30/2026

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hansa Rostock II78%

×Draw12%

Viktoria Berlin9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock IIExpected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.31

1.11

Hansa Rostock II

3.31

Viktoria Berlin

1.11

Hansa Rostock II creates 198% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

2.76

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

3.87

creates per match

Hansa Rostock II

2.76

Viktoria Berlin

1.07

allows per match

Hansa Rostock II

1.16

Viktoria Berlin

3.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock II ↓

Viktoria Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock II or draw

91%

Hansa Rostock II or Viktoria Berlin

88%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin

22%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+

60%

Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals

96%

Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals

83%

Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals

62%

Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals

67%

Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals

30%

Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)

89%

Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock II at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Viktoria Berlin away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.76 + Viktoria Berlin defence 3.87 → ÷2 → 3.31

Viktoria Berlin attack 1.07 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hansa Rostock II scores more

78%

level

12%

Viktoria Berlin scores more

9%

Hansa Rostock II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff