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Hansa Rostock II vs Neustrelitz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hansa Rostock II
Hansa Rostock II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hansa Rostock II82%
×Draw11%
Neustrelitz8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock II
3.65
Neustrelitz
1.10

Hansa Rostock II creates 232% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock II
2.50
Neustrelitz
1.20

allows per match

Hansa Rostock II
1.00
Neustrelitz
4.80

finishing

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock II ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock II or draw
92%
Hansa Rostock II or Neustrelitz
89%
Draw or Neustrelitz
18%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+
65%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals
97%
Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals
87%
Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals
68%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
67%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
30%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)
92%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.20, concedes 4.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.50 + Neustrelitz defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 3.65

Neustrelitz attack 1.20 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Hansa Rostock II scores more
82%
level
11%
Neustrelitz scores more
8%

Hansa Rostock II at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hansa Rostock II 2–2 Neustrelitz

Hansa Rostock II and Neustrelitz drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion in Rostock.