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Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
4/18/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Hannover 9640%
×Draw25%
SC Paderborn 0735%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
1.45
SC Paderborn 07
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
1.55
SC Paderborn 07
1.48

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.23
SC Paderborn 07
1.35

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
65%
Hannover 96 or SC Paderborn 07
75%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
60%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
19%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
77%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
42%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
18%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
74%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
39%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
53%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.35 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.55 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.48 + Hannover 96 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
40%
level
25%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
35%

Hannover 96 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hannover 96 1–1 SC Paderborn 07

Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena in Hannover.