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Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
3/12/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 24Heinz von Heiden-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hannover 9648%
×Draw25%
Hansa Rostock26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
1.56
Hansa Rostock
1.08

Hannover 96 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
1.55
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.23
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
74%
Hannover 96 or Hansa Rostock
75%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
52%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
25%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
79%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
46%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
21%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
66%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
29%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
65%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.55 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Hannover 96 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
48%
level
25%
Hansa Rostock scores more
26%

Hannover 96 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hannover 96 1–1 Hansa Rostock

Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in Hannover.