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Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
4/21/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30Heinz von Heiden-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Hannover 9645%
×Draw24%
FC St. Pauli30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.30

Hannover 96 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
1.55
FC St. Pauli
1.37

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.23
FC St. Pauli
1.72

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
70%
Hannover 96 or FC St. Pauli
76%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
55%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
23%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
81%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
49%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
23%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
73%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
37%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
60%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.55 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

FC St. Pauli attack 1.37 + Hannover 96 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
45%
level
24%
FC St. Pauli scores more
30%

Hannover 96 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli beat Hannover 96 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in Hannover.