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Hannover 96 vs FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Kaiserslautern
FC Kaiserslautern
3/16/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 26Heinz von Heiden-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Hannover 9646%
×Draw25%
FC Kaiserslautern29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
1.61
FC Kaiserslautern
1.23

Hannover 96 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 69 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
1.55
FC Kaiserslautern
1.23

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.23
FC Kaiserslautern
1.68

finishing

Hannover 96+0.00on par
FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
71%
Hannover 96 or FC Kaiserslautern
75%
Draw or FC Kaiserslautern
54%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
24%
FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
80%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
48%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
22%
FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
71%
FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
35%
FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
61%
FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 1.55 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.23 + Hannover 96 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
46%
level
25%
FC Kaiserslautern scores more
29%

Hannover 96 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hannover 96 vs FC Kaiserslautern

Hannover 96 and FC Kaiserslautern drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in Hannover.