Hannover 96 U19 3–0 Viktoria Berlin U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Viktoria Berlin U19

M. Ndikom 67'

N. Tresoldi 36'

A. Babitsch 13'

2/12/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1396 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hannover 96 U1958%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Berlin U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.50

Hannover 96 U19

2.44

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.50

Hannover 96 U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 41 away

2.39

creates per match

1.59

1.40

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.39

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.59

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.40

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Viktoria Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

77%

Hannover 96 U19 or Viktoria Berlin U19

81%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin U19

42%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

37%

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

91%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

70%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

43%

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

78%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

44%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Viktoria Berlin U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.39 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.44

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.59 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

58%

level

19%

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

23%

Hannover 96 U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Babitsch

36'

N. Tresoldi

46'

O. Skakun← G. Gashi

61'

B. El-Haj← M. Yildirim

67'

M. Ndikom

70'

M. Keskin← G. Phòng

70'

F. Pereira Mendes← L. Halimi

75'

M. Schmidt← K. Brandt

78'

L. Sommerfeld← K. Kreibich

80'

J. Videira← L. Garlipp

81'

M. Dammeier

88'

A. Cankor← M. Ndikom

88'

C. Piepenbrink← A. Babitsch

88'

M. Collins← N. Tresoldi

Hannover

Viktoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tresoldi

▼

Garlipp

⚽

▼

Ndikom

Manager: D. Lottner

75'▲M. Schmidt←▼K. Brandt

80'▲J. Videira←▼L. Garlipp

88'▲A. Cankor←▼M. Ndikom

88'▲C. Piepenbrink←▼A. Babitsch

88'▲M. Collins←▼N. Tresoldi

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

SchmidtVideiraCankorPiepenbrinkCollinsWackerKordi

Manager: H. Keskin

46'▲O. Skakun←▼G. Gashi

61'▲B. El-Haj←▼M. Yildirim

70'▲M. Keskin←▼G. Phòng

70'▲F. Pereira Mendes←▼L. Halimi

78'▲L. Sommerfeld←▼K. Kreibich

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

SkakunEl-HajKeskinMendesSommerfeldKöstekliTellez