Hannover 96 U19 4–0 Union Berlin U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Union Berlin U19

L. Podolski 61'

L. Garlipp 22', 21'

J. Videira 13'

12/4/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1196 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Hannover 96 U1946%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.71

Hannover 96 U19

2.04

Union Berlin U19

1.71

Hannover 96 U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 72 away

2.36

creates per match

1.99

1.42

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.36

Union Berlin U19

1.99

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.42

Union Berlin U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

67%

Hannover 96 U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

54%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

26%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

87%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

60%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

33%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

82%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

51%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.36 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.99 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

46%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

33%

Hannover 96 U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Videira

21'

L. Ibrahimi← F. Hoffmann

21'

22'

46'

46'

46'

61'

73'

B. Hoffmann← V. Aliji

76'

A. Cankor← J. Videira

76'

M. Schmidt← S. Szitai

81'

C. Piepenbrink← K. Brandt

81'

M. Collins← L. Garlipp

81'

N. Meier← M. Ndikom

Hannover

Union

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Garlipp

⚽

▼

Videira

▼

Ndikom

Manager: D. Lottner

76'▲A. Cankor←▼J. Videira

76'▲M. Schmidt←▼S. Szitai

81'▲C. Piepenbrink←▼K. Brandt

81'▲M. Collins←▼L. Garlipp

81'▲N. Meier←▼M. Ndikom

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

CankorSchmidtPiepenbrinkCollinsMeierGrimpeBöhmker

Manager: M. Grote

21'▲L. Ibrahimi←▼F. Hoffmann

46'▲B. Gögce←▼G. Kamdem

46'▲M. Rösner←▼J. Scholz

46'▲T. Kramer←▼D. Preu

73'▲B. Hoffmann←▼V. Aliji

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

IbrahimiGögceRösnerKramerHoffmannKalaycıAlbert

U19 Bundesliga: Hannover 96 U19 4–0 Union Berlin U19

Hannover 96 U19 beat Union Berlin U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 4, 2022.

Goals: J. Videira (13'), L. Garlipp (21', 22'), L. Podolski (61').

The match was played at 96 Das Stadion in Hannover.

Hannover 96 U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hannover 96 U19 4–0 Union Berlin U19