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Hannover 96 U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
5/24/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 596 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hannover 96 U1949%
×Draw21%
St. Pauli U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96 U19
2.21
St. Pauli U19
1.72

Hannover 96 U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19
2.27
St. Pauli U19
2.01

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19
1.43
St. Pauli U19
2.14

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par
St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw
70%
Hannover 96 U19 or St. Pauli U19
79%
Draw or St. Pauli U19
51%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
29%
St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
89%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
65%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
38%
St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
82%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
51%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
62%
St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 2.14 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.27 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.21

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.01 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more
49%
level
21%
St. Pauli U19 scores more
30%

Hannover 96 U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hannover 96 U19 vs St. Pauli U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Hannover 96 U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at 96 Das Stadion in Hannover.