Hannover 96 U19 1–2 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

Hannover 96 U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Paderborn U19

D. Husser 77' (pen)

A. Altay 51'

J. Markötter 41'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 296 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hannover 96 U1945%

×Draw21%

Paderborn U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.77

Hannover 96 U19

2.08

Paderborn U19

1.77

Hannover 96 U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 60 away

2.39

creates per match

2.15

1.40

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.39

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.40

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

66%

Hannover 96 U19 or Paderborn U19

79%

Draw or Paderborn U19

55%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

26%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

87%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

61%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

34%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

83%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

53%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.39 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.08

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

45%

level

21%

Paderborn U19 scores more

34%

Hannover 96 U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

A. Altay← Pedro Restrepo Naranjo

41'

J. Markötter

46'

T. Hobrecht← O. Wegner

51'

A. Altay

56'

D. Husser← R. Rühling

56'

P. Lorenz← K. Pfitzner

68'

C. Agirayak← Hassan Mohammad

68'

S. Tsanev← J. Kerlen

71'

J. Meusel← A. Vogel

71'

L. Ahenkora← Ö. Sever

77'

D. HusserPenalty

78'

G. Jácome-Fontana← L. Kiewitt

78'

K. George← M. Theiß

78'

M. Runte← J. Markötter

87'

A. Hanke← O. Schwarz

Hannover

Paderborn

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Lottner

46'▲T. Hobrecht←▼O. Wegner

56'▲D. Husser←▼R. Rühling

56'▲P. Lorenz←▼K. Pfitzner

71'▲J. Meusel←▼A. Vogel

71'▲L. Ahenkora←▼Ö. Sever

87'▲A. Hanke←▼O. Schwarz

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

HobrechtHusserLorenzMeuselAhenkoraHankeLange

Manager: I. Kalkan

34'▲A. Altay←▼Pedro Restrepo Naranjo

68'▲C. Agirayak←▼Hassan Mohammad

68'▲S. Tsanev←▼J. Kerlen

78'▲G. Jácome-Fontana←▼L. Kiewitt

78'▲K. George←▼M. Theiß

78'▲M. Runte←▼J. Markötter

Paderborn U19 substitutes

AltayAgirayakTsanevJácome-FontanaGeorgeRunteObertrifter

U19 Bundesliga: Hannover 96 U19 1–2 Paderborn U19

Paderborn U19 beat Hannover 96 U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Markötter (41'), A. Altay (51'), D. Husser (77' pen).

The match was played at 96 Das Stadion in Hannover.

Hannover 96 U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hannover 96 U19 1–2 Paderborn U19