Hannover 96 U19 3–3 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

L. Garlipp 33', 16'

J. Videira 18'

P. Behrend 90+2'

J. Hartl 81'

D. Kljajić 22'

11/2/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 796 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hannover 96 U1945%

×Draw21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.73

Hannover 96 U19

2.02

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.73

Hannover 96 U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 11 away

2.41

creates per match

2.09

1.38

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.41

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.38

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

66%

Hannover 96 U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

79%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

55%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

25%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

87%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

60%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

33%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

82%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

52%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.41 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

45%

level

21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

34%

Hannover 96 U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

22'

33'

46'

E. Akova← J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

46'

H. Muqaj← A. Soliman

75'

P. Behrend← L. Millgramm

75'

W. Noack← J. Windsor

78'

M. Schmidt← M. Ndikom

80'

J. Hartl← G. Didoss

81'

J. Hartl

83'

A. Cankor← J. Videira

88'

M. Collins← J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz

90+2'

P. Behrend

Hannover

Hertha

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Videira

▼

Ndikom

Manager: D. Lottner

78'▲M. Schmidt←▼M. Ndikom

83'▲A. Cankor←▼J. Videira

88'▲M. Collins←▼J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

SchmidtCankorCollinsWackerPiepenbrinkBöhmkerRoselieb

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲E. Akova←▼J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

46'▲H. Muqaj←▼A. Soliman

75'▲P. Behrend←▼L. Millgramm

75'▲W. Noack←▼J. Windsor

80'▲J. Hartl←▼G. Didoss

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

AkovaMuqajBehrendNoackHartlKarikaGörlitz