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Hannover 96 U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
8/21/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 296 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Hannover 96 U1939%
×Draw21%
Hertha BSC U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96 U19
1.90
Hertha BSC U19
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 71 away

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19
2.30
Hertha BSC U19
2.38

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19
1.44
Hertha BSC U19
1.49

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par
Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw
61%
Hannover 96 U19 or Hertha BSC U19
79%
Draw or Hertha BSC U19
61%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
21%
Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
85%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
56%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
29%
Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
85%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
57%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.30 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.38 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more
39%
level
21%
Hertha BSC U19 scores more
39%

Hannover 96 U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hannover 96 U19 0 – 5 Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Hannover 96 U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at 96 Das Stadion in Hannover.