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Hannover 96 U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock U19
Hansa Rostock U19
11/20/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1096 Das Stadion, Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hannover 96 U1953%
×Draw20%
Hansa Rostock U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96 U19
2.35
Hansa Rostock U19
1.64

Hannover 96 U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19
2.30
Hansa Rostock U19
1.84

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19
1.44
Hansa Rostock U19
2.41

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Hansa Rostock U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw
73%
Hannover 96 U19 or Hansa Rostock U19
80%
Draw or Hansa Rostock U19
47%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
33%
Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
90%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
68%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
41%
Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals
81%
Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals
49%
Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Hansa Rostock U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.30 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.35

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 1.84 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more
53%
level
20%
Hansa Rostock U19 scores more
27%

Hannover 96 U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hannover 96 U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19

Hannover 96 U19 and Hansa Rostock U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at 96 Das Stadion, Rasenplatz in Hannover.