Hannover 96 U19 1–2 Hamburger SV U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Hamburger SV U19

8/31/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 5Eilenriedestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hannover 96 U1947%

×Draw21%

Hamburger SV U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.70

Hannover 96 U19

2.09

Hamburger SV U19

1.70

Hannover 96 U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 70 away

2.27

creates per match

1.97

1.43

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.27

Hamburger SV U19

1.97

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.43

Hamburger SV U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

68%

Hannover 96 U19 or Hamburger SV U19

79%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

53%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

27%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

88%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

62%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

34%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

82%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

51%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.91 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.27 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hamburger SV U19 attack 1.97 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

47%

level

21%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

32%

Hannover 96 U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff