Hannover 96 U19 4–0 Energie Cottbus U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Energie Cottbus U19

N. Tresoldi 78'

L. Garlipp 52'

J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz 45+4', 29'

11/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 996 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hannover 96 U1957%

×Draw20%

Energie Cottbus U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchEnergie Cottbus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.42

Hannover 96 U19

2.29

Energie Cottbus U19

1.42

Hannover 96 U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 56 away

2.39

creates per match

1.45

1.40

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.39

Energie Cottbus U19

1.45

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.40

Energie Cottbus U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Energie Cottbus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

77%

Hannover 96 U19 or Energie Cottbus U19

80%

Draw or Energie Cottbus U19

43%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

35%

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

90%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

66%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

40%

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

76%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

41%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Energie Cottbus U19 away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.39 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.29

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.45 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

23%

Hannover 96 U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz

38'

T. Bektaş← M. Grumbach

45+4'

J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz

46'

J. N'Diaye← M. Ndikom

52'

L. Garlipp

65'

M. Kummer← T. Michalski

76'

A. Boukara← I. Tsatiev

76'

A. Glapa← J. Spangenberg

78'

N. Tresoldi

83'

A. Cankor← N. Tresoldi

83'

J. Videira← K. Brandt

83'

M. Schmidt← L. Garlipp

85'

P. Böhmker← F. Henze

Hannover

Energie

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Tresoldi

⚽

▼

Garlipp

▼

Ndikom

Manager: D. Lottner

46'▲J. N'Diaye←▼M. Ndikom

83'▲A. Cankor←▼N. Tresoldi

83'▲J. Videira←▼K. Brandt

83'▲M. Schmidt←▼L. Garlipp

85'▲P. Böhmker←▼F. Henze

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

N'DiayeCankorVideiraSchmidtBöhmkerGrimpeSzitai

Manager: F. Adelmann

38'▲T. Bektaş←▼M. Grumbach

65'▲M. Kummer←▼T. Michalski

76'▲A. Boukara←▼I. Tsatiev

76'▲A. Glapa←▼J. Spangenberg

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

BektaşKummerBoukaraGlapaLaszczynskiStruckLox

Match Recap: Hannover 96 U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19

Hannover 96 U19 beat Energie Cottbus U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 12, 2022.

Goals: J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz (29', 45+4'), L. Garlipp (52'), N. Tresoldi (78').

The match was played at 96 Das Stadion in Hannover.

Hannover 96 U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hannover 96 U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19