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Hannover 96 U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
4/25/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Hannover 96 U1941%
×Draw21%
Borussia M'bach U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96 U19
1.93
Borussia M'bach U19
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19
2.41
Borussia M'bach U19
2.32

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19
1.38
Borussia M'bach U19
1.45

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par
Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw
62%
Hannover 96 U19 or Borussia M'bach U19
79%
Draw or Borussia M'bach U19
59%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
22%
Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
85%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
57%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
30%
Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
84%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
55%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.41 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.93

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more
41%
level
21%
Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
38%

Hannover 96 U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hannover
Borussia
D. Lottner
Manager: D. Lottner
O. Kirch
Manager: O. Kirch

Match Recap: Hannover 96 U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19

Hannover 96 U19 beat Borussia M'bach U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 25, 2026.