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Hannover 96 II vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hannover 96 II
Hannover 96 II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
R. Kalem 26'
S. Marino 3'
S. Addai 69'
J. Mensah 45'
F. Elezi 15'
1/8/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Clausewitzstraße D-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hannover 96 II63%
×Draw18%
Sportfreunde Lotte20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96 II
2.71
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.48

Hannover 96 II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hannover 96 II
3.53
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.90

allows per match

Hannover 96 II
1.06
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.90

finishing

Hannover 96 II+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 II ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hannover 96 II or draw
80%
Hannover 96 II or Sportfreunde Lotte
82%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
37%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 II wins by 2+
42%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hannover 96 II 1+ goals
93%
Hannover 96 II 2+ goals
75%
Hannover 96 II 3+ goals
50%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
77%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
43%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 II (draw refunded)
76%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 II at home — creates 3.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 II attack 3.53 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.71

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.90 + Hannover 96 II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hannover 96 II scores more
63%
level
18%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
20%

Hannover 96 II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hannover 96 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
S. Marino
15'
F. Elezi
26'
R. Kalem
45'
J. Mensah
69'
S. Addai
Hannover
Sportfreunde
D. Stendel
Manager: D. Stendel
Fabian Lübbers
Manager: Fabian Lübbers

Friendlies Clubs: Hannover 96 II 2–3 Sportfreunde Lotte

Sportfreunde Lotte beat Hannover 96 II 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2025.

Goals: S. Marino (3'), F. Elezi (15'), R. Kalem (26'), J. Mensah (45'), S. Addai (69').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Clausewitzstraße D-Platz in Hannover.