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Hannover 96 II vs Greifswalder FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hannover 96 II
Hannover 96 II
FT
3 – 0
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 396 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hannover 96 II61%
×Draw18%
Greifswalder FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96 II
2.77
Greifswalder FC
1.64

Hannover 96 II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hannover 96 II
3.75
Greifswalder FC
2.22

allows per match

Hannover 96 II
1.06
Greifswalder FC
1.78

finishing

Hannover 96 II+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 II ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Hannover 96 II or draw
78%
Hannover 96 II or Greifswalder FC
82%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
39%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 II wins by 2+
41%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hannover 96 II 1+ goals
94%
Hannover 96 II 2+ goals
76%
Hannover 96 II 3+ goals
51%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
81%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
49%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 II (draw refunded)
74%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 II at home — creates 3.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 II attack 3.75 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.77

Greifswalder FC attack 2.22 + Hannover 96 II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hannover 96 II scores more
61%
level
18%
Greifswalder FC scores more
22%

Hannover 96 II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hannover 96 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hannover 96 II 3–0 Greifswalder FC

Hannover 96 II beat Greifswalder FC 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at 96 Das Stadion in Hannover.