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Morecambe vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Oldham
Oldham
8/25/2018League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Morecambe40%
×Draw26%
Oldham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.38
Oldham
1.24

Morecambe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.31
Oldham
1.16

allows per match

Morecambe
1.32
Oldham
1.45

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
66%
Morecambe or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
60%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
19%
Oldham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
75%
Morecambe 2+ goals
40%
Morecambe 3+ goals
16%
Oldham 1+ goals
71%
Oldham 2+ goals
35%
Oldham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
54%
Oldham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Oldham attack 1.16 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morecambe scores more
40%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
34%

Morecambe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morecambe vs Oldham

Oldham beat Morecambe 2-0 in League Two on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe.