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Hankofen-Hailing vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
D. Vogl 66'
N. Kuss 36' (OG)
N. Hock 86'
9/9/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing61%
×Draw20%
Würzburger FV19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
2.23
Würzburger FV
1.16

Hankofen-Hailing creates 92% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Würzburger FV
1.32

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Würzburger FV
1.97

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
81%
Hankofen-Hailing or Würzburger FV
80%
Draw or Würzburger FV
39%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
39%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
89%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
65%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
38%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
69%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
32%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
76%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.97 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Würzburger FV defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.23

Würzburger FV attack 1.32 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
61%
level
20%
Würzburger FV scores more
19%

Hankofen-Hailing at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
N. KussOwn goal
66'
D. Vogl
86'
N. Hock
87'
D. RabanterMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hankofen-Hailing vs Würzburger FV

Hankofen-Hailing beat Würzburger FV 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 9, 2023.

Goals: N. Kuss (36' o.g.), D. Vogl (66'), N. Hock (86').

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.