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Hankofen-Hailing vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
8/19/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 7Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing52%
×Draw22%
Ingolstadt II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
2.04
Ingolstadt II
1.40

Hankofen-Hailing creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
74%
Hankofen-Hailing or Ingolstadt II
78%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
48%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
30%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
87%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
60%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
33%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
75%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
41%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
66%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
52%
level
22%
Ingolstadt II scores more
26%

Hankofen-Hailing at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hankofen-Hailing vs Ingolstadt II

Ingolstadt II beat Hankofen-Hailing 4-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.