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Hankofen-Hailing vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
8/26/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 8Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing50%
×Draw21%
Gebenbach28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
2.06
Gebenbach
1.50

Hankofen-Hailing creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Gebenbach
1.62

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
72%
Hankofen-Hailing or Gebenbach
79%
Draw or Gebenbach
50%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
29%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
87%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
61%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
34%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
78%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
44%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
64%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.06

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
50%
level
21%
Gebenbach scores more
28%

Hankofen-Hailing at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hankofen-Hailing vs Gebenbach

Hankofen-Hailing beat Gebenbach 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.