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Hankofen-Hailing vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
T. Lermer 74'
A. Wagner 57'
A. Morina 8'
5/1/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 35Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing57%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Regensburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
2.17
Fortuna Regensburg
1.30

Hankofen-Hailing creates 67% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Fortuna Regensburg
1.60

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Fortuna Regensburg
1.85

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
78%
Hankofen-Hailing or Fortuna Regensburg
79%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
43%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
35%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
89%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
64%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
36%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
73%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
37%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
72%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.60 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
57%
level
21%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
22%

Hankofen-Hailing at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Morina
57'
A. Wagner
74'
T. Lermer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Hankofen-Hailing 2–1 Fortuna Regensburg

Hankofen-Hailing beat Fortuna Regensburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Morina (8'), A. Wagner (57'), T. Lermer (74').

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.