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Hankofen-Hailing vs Eltersdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
D. Vogl 63'
A. Hiroki 88'
9/23/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 13Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing47%
×Draw23%
Eltersdorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
1.81
Eltersdorf
1.39

Hankofen-Hailing creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Eltersdorf
1.78

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Eltersdorf
1.13

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Eltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
70%
Hankofen-Hailing or Eltersdorf
77%
Draw or Eltersdorf
53%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
26%
Eltersdorf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
84%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
54%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
27%
Eltersdorf 1+ goals
75%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
40%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
61%
Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
47%
level
23%
Eltersdorf scores more
30%

Hankofen-Hailing at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
D. Vogl
88'
A. Hiroki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hankofen-Hailing vs Eltersdorf

Hankofen-Hailing and Eltersdorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 23, 2023.

Goals: D. Vogl (63'), A. Hiroki (88').

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.