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Hankofen-Hailing vs Eichstätt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eichstätt
Eichstätt
3/2/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing45%
×Draw22%
Eichstätt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
1.92
Eichstätt
1.61

Hankofen-Hailing creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Eichstätt
2.23

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Eichstätt
1.34

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Eichstätt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
67%
Hankofen-Hailing or Eichstätt
78%
Draw or Eichstätt
55%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
25%
Eichstätt wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
85%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
57%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
30%
Eichstätt 1+ goals
80%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
48%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
58%
Eichstätt (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Eichstätt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.92

Eichstätt attack 2.23 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
45%
level
22%
Eichstätt scores more
33%

Hankofen-Hailing at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hankofen-Hailing vs Eichstätt

Hankofen-Hailing beat Eichstätt 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.