Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hankofen-Hailing vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coburg
Coburg
10/28/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 19Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing62%
×Draw19%
Coburg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
2.42
Coburg
1.27

Hankofen-Hailing creates 91% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.50
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Coburg
2.35

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
81%
Hankofen-Hailing or Coburg
81%
Draw or Coburg
38%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
41%
Coburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
91%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
69%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
43%
Coburg 1+ goals
72%
Coburg 2+ goals
36%
Coburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
77%
Coburg (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.42

Coburg attack 1.53 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
62%
level
19%
Coburg scores more
19%

Hankofen-Hailing at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hankofen-Hailing vs Coburg

Hankofen-Hailing beat Coburg 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.