Hankofen-Hailing 1–2 ASV Neumarkt: Result & Stats

Hankofen-Hailing

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ASV Neumarkt

7/26/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing56%

×Draw21%

ASV Neumarkt23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hankofen-HailingExpected goals in this matchASV Neumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.29

Hankofen-Hailing

2.13

ASV Neumarkt

1.29

Hankofen-Hailing creates 65% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

2.50

creates per match

1.58

1.00

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing

2.50

ASV Neumarkt

1.58

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing

1.00

ASV Neumarkt

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

ASV Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw

77%

Hankofen-Hailing or ASV Neumarkt

79%

Draw or ASV Neumarkt

44%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+

34%

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals

88%

Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals

63%

Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals

35%

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

72%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

37%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)

71%

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.13

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more

56%

level

21%

ASV Neumarkt scores more

23%

Hankofen-Hailing at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff