Hankofen-Hailing 3–0 1. SC Feucht: Result & Stats

Hankofen-Hailing

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

1. SC Feucht

T. Richter 76', 24'

B. Ganger 37'

10/3/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing66%

×Draw18%

1. SC Feucht16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hankofen-HailingExpected goals in this match1. SC Feucht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.19

Hankofen-Hailing

2.56

1. SC Feucht

1.19

Hankofen-Hailing creates 115% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

2.50

creates per match

1.37

1.00

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing

2.50

1. SC Feucht

1.37

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing

1.00

1. SC Feucht

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

1. SC Feucht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw

84%

Hankofen-Hailing or 1. SC Feucht

82%

Draw or 1. SC Feucht

34%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+

45%

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals

92%

Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals

72%

Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals

46%

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals

70%

1. SC Feucht 2+ goals

33%

1. SC Feucht 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)

81%

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

1. SC Feucht away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 2.50 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.56

1. SC Feucht attack 1.37 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more

66%

level

18%

1. SC Feucht scores more

16%

Hankofen-Hailing at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hankofen-Hailing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

T. Richter

37'

B. Ganger

76'

T. Richter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff