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Haninge vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Haninge
Haninge
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
6/24/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 13Torvalla IP 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Haninge58%
×Draw19%
Syrianska FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haninge
2.38
Syrianska FC
1.45

Haninge creates 64% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 73 away

creates per match

Haninge
2.89
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Haninge
1.17
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Haninge or draw
77%
Haninge or Syrianska FC
81%
Draw or Syrianska FC
42%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+
37%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals
91%
Haninge 2+ goals
68%
Haninge 3+ goals
42%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
77%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
42%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)
72%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.17 · 47 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 2.89 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.38

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Haninge defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Haninge scores more
58%
level
19%
Syrianska FC scores more
23%

Haninge at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haninge vs Syrianska FC

Haninge beat Syrianska FC 5-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at Torvalla IP 4 in Haninge.