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Haninge vs Stockholm Internazionale — Svenska Cupen 2019

Haninge
Haninge
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
5/29/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundTorvalla IP 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Haninge6%
×Draw14%
Stockholm Internazionale80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haninge
0.55
Stockholm Internazionale
2.55

Stockholm Internazionale creates 364% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Haninge
0.50
Stockholm Internazionale
2.60

allows per match

Haninge
2.50
Stockholm Internazionale
0.60

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par
Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–215%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Haninge or draw
20%
Haninge or Stockholm Internazionale
86%
Draw or Stockholm Internazionale
94%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+
1%
Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals
42%
Haninge 2+ goals
11%
Haninge 3+ goals
2%
Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
92%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
72%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)
7%
Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 0.50 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Stockholm Internazionale attack 2.60 + Haninge defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Haninge scores more
6%
level
14%
Stockholm Internazionale scores more
80%

Stockholm Internazionale at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Haninge 0–4 Stockholm Internazionale

Stockholm Internazionale beat Haninge 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at Torvalla IP 4 in Haninge.