Haninge 1–2 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Haninge

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Orebro SK

10/21/2020

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundTorvalla IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Haninge13%

×Draw19%

Orebro SK68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaningeExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

2.17

Haninge

0.82

Orebro SK

2.17

Orebro SK creates 165% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

0.50

creates per match

1.85

2.50

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Haninge

0.50

Orebro SK

1.85

allows per match

Haninge

2.50

Orebro SK

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haninge or draw

32%

Haninge or Orebro SK

81%

Draw or Orebro SK

87%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+

4%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals

56%

Haninge 2+ goals

20%

Haninge 3+ goals

5%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

89%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

64%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)

16%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 0.50 + Orebro SK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.82

Orebro SK attack 1.85 + Haninge defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Haninge scores more

13%

level

19%

Orebro SK scores more

68%

Orebro SK at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff