Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haninge vs IK Frej — Ettan - Norra 2019

Haninge
Haninge
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
IK Frej
IK Frej
8/12/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 11Torvalla IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Haninge51%
×Draw21%
IK Frej27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haninge
2.06
IK Frej
1.45

Haninge creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Haninge
2.00
IK Frej
1.40

allows per match

Haninge
1.50
IK Frej
2.13

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Haninge or draw
73%
Haninge or IK Frej
79%
Draw or IK Frej
49%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+
30%
IK Frej wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals
87%
Haninge 2+ goals
61%
Haninge 3+ goals
34%
IK Frej 1+ goals
77%
IK Frej 2+ goals
42%
IK Frej 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)
65%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 2.00 + IK Frej defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Haninge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Haninge scores more
51%
level
21%
IK Frej scores more
27%

Haninge at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haninge vs IK Frej

Haninge beat IK Frej 4-3 in Ettan - Norra on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Torvalla IP 1 in Haninge.