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Haninge vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Haninge
Haninge
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
8/4/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 15Torvalla IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Haninge66%
×Draw17%
IFK Eskilstuna17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haninge
2.66
IFK Eskilstuna
1.30

Haninge creates 105% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 60 away

creates per match

Haninge
2.89
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Haninge
1.17
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Haninge or draw
83%
Haninge or IFK Eskilstuna
83%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
34%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+
45%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals
93%
Haninge 2+ goals
74%
Haninge 3+ goals
49%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
73%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
37%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)
79%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.17 · 47 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 2.89 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.66

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Haninge defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Haninge scores more
66%
level
17%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
17%

Haninge at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haninge vs IFK Eskilstuna

Haninge beat IFK Eskilstuna 3-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Torvalla IP 1 in Haninge.