Haninge 2–2 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Haninge

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dalkurd FF

11/21/2021

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 30Torvalla IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Haninge42%

×Draw23%

Dalkurd FF34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaningeExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.50

Haninge

1.69

Dalkurd FF

1.50

Haninge creates 13% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Haninge

2.00

Dalkurd FF

1.50

allows per match

Haninge

1.50

Dalkurd FF

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Haninge or draw

66%

Haninge or Dalkurd FF

77%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

58%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+

22%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals

82%

Haninge 2+ goals

50%

Haninge 3+ goals

24%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

78%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

44%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)

55%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 2.00 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + Haninge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Haninge scores more

42%

level

23%

Dalkurd FF scores more

34%

Haninge at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff