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Haninge vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Haninge
Haninge
FT
9 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
6/8/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 12Torvalla idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Haninge50%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haninge
2.19
AFC Eskilstuna
1.63

Haninge creates 34% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 37 away

creates per match

Haninge
2.00
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Haninge
1.50
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Haninge or draw
71%
Haninge or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
50%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+
30%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals
89%
Haninge 2+ goals
64%
Haninge 3+ goals
37%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
80%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
48%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)
64%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 2.00 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Haninge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Haninge scores more
50%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
29%

Haninge at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haninge vs AFC Eskilstuna

Haninge beat AFC Eskilstuna 9-3 in Ettan - Norra on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Torvalla idrottsplats in Haninge.