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Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — FA Cup 2019

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang
Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
5/19/2024FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundLinping Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang24%
×Draw24%
Chongqing Tongliang Long52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang
1.08
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.71

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 58% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang
1.67
Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.75

allows per match

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang
0.67
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.50

finishing

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang+0.00on par
Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang ↓

Chongqing Tongliang Long →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang or draw
48%
Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang or Chongqing Tongliang Long
76%
Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long
76%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang wins by 2+
9%
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang 1+ goals
66%
Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang 2+ goals
29%
Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang 3+ goals
10%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
82%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
51%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang (draw refunded)
32%
Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang attack 1.67 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.75 + Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang scores more
24%
level
24%
Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
52%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Hangzhou Wuyue Qiantang 2-1 in FA Cup on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Linping Sports Center Stadium in Hangzhou.