Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Zall — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
Hangzhou Greentown54%
Wuhan Zall23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hangzhou Greentown creates 63% more chances
Season form · 72 home / 53 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hangzhou Greentown ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches
Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.01 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84
Wuhan Zall attack 1.04 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Hangzhou Greentown at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Shanghai SIPG
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
Jiangsu Suning
Hebei Zhongji
Shanghai Shenhua
Beijing Renhe
Tianjin Songjiang
Guangzhou R&F
Dalian Aerbin
Henan Jianye
Chongqing Lifan
Tianjin Teda
Changchun Yatai
Guizhou ZhichengIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Hangzhou Greentown host Wuhan Zall on Saturday, 31 December 2022 at 07:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Zall
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Zall 4-0 in Super League on December 31, 2022.
Goals: D. Ewolo (13'), Yao Junsheng (22'), N. Mushekwi (35'), Matheus Nascimento (84').
Hangzhou Greentown controlled possession (63%) and registered 29 shots to 7.
The match was played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Huzhou.