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Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2026

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
3/3/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown57%
×Draw21%
Sichuan Jiuniu22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
2.14
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.28

Hangzhou Greentown creates 67% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
2.35
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.20

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.36
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.93

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown-0.35scores less
Sichuan Jiuniu-0.64scores less

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
78%
Hangzhou Greentown or Sichuan Jiuniu
79%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
43%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
35%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
88%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
63%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
36%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
72%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
37%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
72%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.35 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.14

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.20 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
57%
level
21%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
22%

Hangzhou Greentown at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 in Super League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium in Hangzhou.