Hangzhou Greentown 1–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shenzhen Ruby FC

4/22/2018

League One · Round 7Yellow Dragon Sports Center (Hangzhou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown45%

×Draw26%

Shenzhen Ruby FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.14

Hangzhou Greentown

1.48

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.14

Hangzhou Greentown creates 30% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 13 away

1.89

creates per match

1.23

1.04

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.89

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.23

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.04

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

71%

Hangzhou Greentown or Shenzhen Ruby FC

74%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

55%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

22%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

77%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

43%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

19%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

68%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

32%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

61%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.23 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

45%

level

26%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

29%

Hangzhou Greentown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff