Hangzhou Greentown 3–0 Hebei Zhongji

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Hebei Zhongji

8/28/2022

Super League · Round 15Huzhou Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown62%

×Draw20%

Hebei Zhongji18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.08

Hangzhou Greentown

2.17

Hebei Zhongji

1.08

Hangzhou Greentown creates 101% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 67 away

2.01

creates per match

0.94

1.22

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

2.01

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.22

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

82%

Hangzhou Greentown or Hebei Zhongji

80%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

38%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

39%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

89%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

64%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

36%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

66%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

29%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

77%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.01 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.17

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

62%

level

20%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

18%

Hangzhou Greentown at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff