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Hangzhou Greentown vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
12/13/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 22Wuhua People's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown51%
×Draw25%
Guizhou Zhicheng24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.63
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.04

Hangzhou Greentown creates 57% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 41 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.89
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.04
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
76%
Hangzhou Greentown or Guizhou Zhicheng
75%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
49%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
27%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
80%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
48%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
22%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
65%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
28%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
68%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.63

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
51%
level
25%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
24%

Hangzhou Greentown at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Hangzhou Greentown 6–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Hangzhou Greentown beat Guizhou Zhicheng 6-1 in League One on December 13, 2021.

The match was played at Wuhua People's Stadium in Wuhua.