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Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F — FA Cup 2019

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
12/19/2022FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundHuzhou Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown58%
×Draw25%
Guangzhou R&F17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.63
Guangzhou R&F
0.75

Hangzhou Greentown creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
2.00
Guangzhou R&F
0.50

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.00
Guangzhou R&F
1.25

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par
Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Guangzhou R&F →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
83%
Hangzhou Greentown or Guangzhou R&F
75%
Draw or Guangzhou R&F
42%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
32%
Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
80%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
48%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
22%
Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
53%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
17%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
77%
Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.00 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Guangzhou R&F attack 0.50 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
58%
level
25%
Guangzhou R&F scores more
17%

Hangzhou Greentown at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F

Hangzhou Greentown beat Guangzhou R&F 3-0 in FA Cup on December 19, 2022.

The match was played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Huzhou.